FC Twente vs Pafos FC Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa Conference League Gameweek 3
Europa Conference League · Thursday 5 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · De Grolsch Veste, Enschede · updated 2026-10-22
FC Twente welcome Pafos FC to De Grolsch Veste in Enschede in Europa Conference League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
FC Twente have played 5 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 2.8 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 60% of them. At home they average 2.3 goals scored and 0.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 67% win rate. Pafos FC have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, FC Twente are clear favourites at 69%, with the draw at 17% and Pafos FC at 14%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: FC Twente 2.68, Pafos FC 1.15.
- Over 2.5 goals: 73% · both teams to score: 64%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 3 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
FC Twente: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 2.22 a match created (goals minus xG: +2.9).
- Shots: 23.2 a match, 8.2 on target.
- Possession: 63.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.10.
Pafos FC: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.29 a match created (goals minus xG: +2.1).
- Shots: 13.7 a match, 5.7 on target.
- Possession: 46.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.7 a match.
- Discipline: 3.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.61.
FC Twente vs Pafos FC: season averages side by side
| FC Twente | Per match this season | Pafos FC |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 3 |
| 2.8 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 2.0 |
| 2.22 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.29 |
| 23.2 | Shots | 13.7 |
| 8.2 | On target | 5.7 |
| 63.4 | Possession % | 46.3 |
| 40% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 100% |
| 7.8 | Corners | 2.7 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 3.0 |
| 7.10 | Average rating | 6.61 |
FC Twente vs Pafos FC prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.8 goals - 2.68 for FC Twente and 1.15 for Pafos FC - with over 2.5 goals at 73% and both teams scoring at 64%. FC Twente have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: FC Twente 2-1 Pafos FC
FC Twente vs Pafos FC betting tips
- Tip 1: FC Twente to win 69% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 73% by the model, 3.82 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 64% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa Conference League previews
- Kairat vs Panathinaikos Thursday 22 October 2026
- Trabzonspor vs Hearts Thursday 22 October 2026
- Pafos FC vs Riga Thursday 22 October 2026
- Inter Club d'Escaldes vs Universitatea Craiova Thursday 22 October 2026
- Getafe vs Lugano Thursday 22 October 2026
- Kauno Žalgiris vs Brann Thursday 22 October 2026
- Jablonec vs Brighton & Hove Albion Thursday 22 October 2026
- Crvena Zvezda vs FC København Thursday 22 October 2026
FC Twente vs Pafos FC: questions and answers
When is FC Twente vs Pafos FC?
FC Twente vs Pafos FC is on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 3.
Where is FC Twente vs Pafos FC played?
At De Grolsch Veste, Enschede, FC Twente's home ground.
Who will win FC Twente vs Pafos FC?
FC Twente are the favourites: FC Twente 69%, draw 17%, Pafos FC 14%. Our prediction is FC Twente 2-1 Pafos FC.
How many goals will there be in FC Twente vs Pafos FC?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 73%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.