Fiorentina vs Como: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Serie A · Sunday 18 October 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze · updated 2026-10-09
Fiorentina host Como in Serie A on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Stadio Artemio Franchi. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Como slight favourites at 43%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 24% and expects about 3.4 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Fiorentina 1.59, Como 1.82.
- Over 2.5 goals: 66% · both teams to score: 67%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Assane Diao
Assane Diao, 21 · Como · LWF · Creative winger
Moneyball Scout picks Assane Diao as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 74 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 74, defensive 51).
- Key passes: 3.46 per 90 minutes, better than 95% of wingers
- Expected assists (est.): 0.38 per 90 minutes, better than 89% of wingers
- Successful dribbles: 2.93 per 90 minutes, better than 88% of wingers
Fiorentina concede 2.4 goals a match this season (1.53 expected), more than the league's average: the space a creative winger like Assane Diao lives on.
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator, Dribbler.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Fiorentina | Per match this season | Como |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.2 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 2.4 | Goals conceded | 1.2 |
| 1.72 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.90 |
| 1.53 | xG conceded | 1.68 |
| 16.8 | Shots | 23.4 |
| 5.6 | On target | 7.2 |
| 43.4 | Possession % | 61.6 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 80% |
| 4.4 | Corners | 8.0 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 0.8 |
| 6.70 | Average rating | 7.02 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Fiorentina
- Franco Mastantuono forward · rating 7.32 · 5 apps
- Cher Ndour midfielder · rating 6.95 · 5 apps
- Alieu Njie forward · rating 6.93 · 3 apps
Como
- Nico Paz midfielder · rating 7.67 · 5 apps
- Assane Diao midfielder · rating 7.43 · 5 apps
- Lucas Da Cunha midfielder · rating 7.19 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Napoli vs Frosinone Saturday 10 October 2026
- Cagliari vs Juventus Sunday 11 October 2026
- Atalanta vs Venezia Monday 12 October 2026
- Torino vs Udinese Monday 12 October 2026
- Frosinone vs Sassuolo Friday 16 October 2026
- Venezia vs Napoli Saturday 17 October 2026
- Bologna vs Inter Saturday 17 October 2026
- Roma vs Genoa Saturday 17 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.