Grêmio vs Athletico PR Prediction and Betting Tips | Brasileirão Gameweek 33
Brasileirão · Friday 30 October 2026 · 00:30 UTC · Arena do Grêmio, Rio · updated 2026-10-25
Grêmio welcome Athletico PR to Arena do Grêmio in Rio in Brasileirão Gameweek 33 action on Friday 30 October 2026, kick-off 00:30 UTC.
Grêmio have played 31 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 23% of them. At home they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 16 matches, with a 100% win rate. Athletico PR have played 32 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 47% of them. Away from home they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over 16 matches, with a 40% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Athletico PR are narrow favourites at 46%, with the draw at 26% and Grêmio at 28%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Grêmio 1.22, Athletico PR 1.61.
- Over 2.5 goals: 54% · both teams to score: 57%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (31 and 32 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Grêmio: form and key numbers
In style Grêmio play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.04 a match created, 1.94 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.6).
- Shots: 11.7 a match, 3.7 on target.
- Possession: 49.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 19% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 61% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Athletico PR: form and key numbers
In style Athletico PR play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.34 a match created, 1.50 conceded (goals minus xG: +7.2).
- Shots: 13.0 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 47.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (38% away).
- Both teams scored in 59% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Grêmio vs Athletico PR: season averages side by side
| Grêmio | Per match this season | Athletico PR |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Matches | 32 |
| 1.1 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 1.2 |
| 1.04 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.34 |
| 1.94 | xG conceded | 1.50 |
| 11.7 | Shots | 13.0 |
| 3.7 | On target | 5.0 |
| 49.5 | Possession % | 47.0 |
| 19% | Clean sheets % | 25% |
| 61% | Both teams scored % | 59% |
| 4.3 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 2.7 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 6.78 | Average rating | 6.83 |
Players to watch
Grêmio
- Wallace CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 63 · Hard to dribble past, Secure passer (top 3% of his position)
- Marlon LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 60 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 2% of his position)
Athletico PR
- Kerwin Vargas RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 68 · Creator, Big-chance creator (top 1% of his position)
- Gilberto RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 53 · Creator, Secure passer (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Lucas Esquivel
Lucas Esquivel, 25 · Athletico PR · LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 56
Lucas Esquivel, 25, plays as a wing-back for Athletico PR in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and tackles. Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 56
- LWB · Wing-back Natural, 56
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 53
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 1.80 / 90 | 88% |
| Tackles | 2.72 / 90 | 86% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.24 / 90 | 68% |
| Key passes | 1.75 / 90 | 62% |
| Dribbled past | 0.62 / 90 | 55% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★½ Attacking wing-back Wing-back
- ★★★½ Complete wing-back Wing-back
Scout's notes: Crosser, Ball-winner.
- What Lucas Esquivel is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Lucas Esquivel's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Grêmio vs Athletico PR prediction
Grêmio should have more of the ball; both go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.22 for Grêmio and 1.61 for Athletico PR - with over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams scoring at 57%. Athletico PR have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Grêmio 1-2 Athletico PR
Grêmio vs Athletico PR betting tips
- Tip 1: Athletico PR win or draw (double chance) 72% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.83 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (54%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 57% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 11.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Brasileirão previews
- Coritiba vs Grêmio Monday 26 October 2026
- Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro Monday 26 October 2026
- Bragantino vs Chapecoense Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Santos vs Palmeiras Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Fluminense vs Internacional Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Remo vs Botafogo Thursday 29 October 2026
- Bahia vs São Paulo Thursday 29 October 2026
- Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro Thursday 29 October 2026
Grêmio vs Athletico PR: questions and answers
When is Grêmio vs Athletico PR?
Grêmio vs Athletico PR is on Friday 30 October 2026, kick-off 00:30 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 33.
Where is Grêmio vs Athletico PR played?
At Arena do Grêmio, Rio, Grêmio's home ground.
Who will win Grêmio vs Athletico PR?
Athletico PR are the favourites: Grêmio 28%, draw 26%, Athletico PR 46%. Our prediction is Grêmio 1-2 Athletico PR.
Who is the player to watch in Grêmio vs Athletico PR?
Lucas Esquivel of Athletico PR: a attacking wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 56 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Grêmio vs Athletico PR?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.