Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City Prediction and Betting Tips
MLS · Sunday 8 November 2026 · 00:00 UTC · Shell Energy Stadium, Houston · updated 2026-10-25
Houston Dynamo welcome St. Louis City to Shell Energy Stadium in Houston in MLS action on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC.
Houston Dynamo have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 42% of them. At home they average 1.2 goals scored and 0.9 conceded over 16 matches, with a 62% win rate. St. Louis City have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 45% of them. Away from home they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over 16 matches, with a 36% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Houston Dynamo 32%, the draw 28%, St. Louis City 39%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Houston Dynamo 1.18, St. Louis City 1.32.
- Over 2.5 goals: 46% · both teams to score: 52%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (31 and 31 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Houston Dynamo: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.12 a match created, 1.53 conceded (goals minus xG: +6.2).
- Shots: 13.0 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 48.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 39% of matches (58% at home).
- Both teams scored in 42% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 8.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
St. Louis City: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.52 a match created, 1.27 conceded (goals minus xG: +8.8).
- Shots: 13.2 a match, 4.9 on target.
- Possession: 52.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 16% of matches (40% away).
- Both teams scored in 68% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City: season averages side by side
| Houston Dynamo | Per match this season | St. Louis City |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Matches | 31 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 1.12 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.52 |
| 1.53 | xG conceded | 1.27 |
| 13.0 | Shots | 13.2 |
| 4.3 | On target | 4.9 |
| 48.3 | Possession % | 52.2 |
| 39% | Clean sheets % | 16% |
| 42% | Both teams scored % | 68% |
| 4.3 | Corners | 5.2 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.86 | Average rating | 6.87 |
Players to watch
Houston Dynamo
- Jack McGlynn CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 44 · Creator, Chance creator (top 2% of his position)
- Jonathan Bond GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 40 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 2% of his position)
St. Louis City
- Carlo Holse AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 36 · Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume (top 9% of his position)
- Fallou Fall CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 33 · Ball-winner, Blocks shots (top 32% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Guilherme
Guilherme, 31 · Houston Dynamo · LWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 48
Guilherme, 31, plays as a winger for Houston Dynamo in the MLS. Strongest for his role in fouls won and accurate crosses. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 48
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 45
- ST · Centre-forward Accomplished, 38
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls won | 3.44 / 90 | 97% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.26 / 90 | 77% |
| Key passes | 2.46 / 90 | 69% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.32 / 90 | 67% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.27 / 90 | 59% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Draws fouls.
⚠ 15 goals from only 6.8 xG: finishing this far above his chances rarely lasts: check it is not a one-season wonder.
- What Guilherme is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City prediction
St. Louis City should have more of the ball. Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.18 for Houston Dynamo and 1.32 for St. Louis City - with over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams scoring at 52%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Houston Dynamo 1-1 St. Louis City
Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 39%
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 54% by the model, 2.51 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 15.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 9.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City: questions and answers
When is Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City?
Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City is on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC, in MLS.
Where is Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City played?
At Shell Energy Stadium, Houston, Houston Dynamo's home ground.
Who will win Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City?
It is close: Houston Dynamo 32%, draw 28%, St. Louis City 39%. Our prediction is Houston Dynamo 1-1 St. Louis City.
Who is the player to watch in Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City?
Guilherme of Houston Dynamo: a classic winger with a Moneyball Score of 48 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.