Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United Prediction and Betting Tips
MLS · Monday 2 November 2026 · 01:30 UTC · BMO Stadium, Los Angeles · updated 2026-10-25
Los Angeles FC welcome Minnesota United to BMO Stadium in Los Angeles in MLS action on Monday 2 November 2026, kick-off 01:30 UTC.
Los Angeles FC have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 39% of them. At home they average 1.9 goals scored and 0.9 conceded over 15 matches, with a 75% win rate. Minnesota United have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 26% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded over 16 matches, with a 63% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Los Angeles FC are narrow favourites at 50%, with the draw at 24% and Minnesota United at 25%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Los Angeles FC 1.80, Minnesota United 1.21.
- Over 2.5 goals: 58% · both teams to score: 59%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (31 and 31 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Los Angeles FC: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.52 a match created, 1.53 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.8).
- Shots: 14.3 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 46.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 42% of matches (62% at home).
- Both teams scored in 48% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
Minnesota United: form and key numbers
In style Minnesota United are happy without the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.73 a match created, 1.69 conceded (goals minus xG: -6.6).
- Shots: 14.0 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 45.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 19% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United: season averages side by side
| Los Angeles FC | Per match this season | Minnesota United |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Matches | 31 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 1.1 | Goals conceded | 1.8 |
| 1.52 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.73 |
| 1.53 | xG conceded | 1.69 |
| 14.3 | Shots | 14.0 |
| 4.7 | On target | 5.0 |
| 46.2 | Possession % | 45.7 |
| 42% | Clean sheets % | 19% |
| 48% | Both teams scored % | 71% |
| 6.1 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
| 6.91 | Average rating | 6.81 |
Players to watch
Los Angeles FC
- Heung-min Son LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 41 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 14% of his position)
- Mathieu Choinière CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 37 · Secure passer, Press-resistant (top 1% of his position)
Minnesota United
- Kelvin Yeboah CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 38 · Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions (top 5% of his position)
- Joaquín Pereyra CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 37 · Creator, Chance creator (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Denis Bouanga
Denis Bouanga, 31 · Los Angeles FC · LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 44
Denis Bouanga, 31, plays as a winger for Los Angeles FC in the MLS. Strongest for his role in expected goals and shots. Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 44
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 41
- ST · Centre-forward Accomplished, 34
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.44 / 90 | 87% |
| Shots | 3.28 / 90 | 65% |
| Big chances created | 0.44 / 90 | 63% |
| Accurate crosses | 0.91 / 90 | 51% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.25 / 90 | 48% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★½ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions.
- What Denis Bouanga is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Denis Bouanga's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United prediction
Los Angeles FC should have more of the ball; Minnesota United work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.80 for Los Angeles FC and 1.21 for Minnesota United - with over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams scoring at 59%. Los Angeles FC have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Los Angeles FC 2-1 Minnesota United
Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United betting tips
- Tip 1: Los Angeles FC win or draw (double chance) 75% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 58% by the model, 3.01 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 59% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United: questions and answers
When is Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United?
Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United is on Monday 2 November 2026, kick-off 01:30 UTC, in MLS.
Where is Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United played?
At BMO Stadium, Los Angeles, Los Angeles FC's home ground.
Who will win Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United?
Los Angeles FC are the favourites: Los Angeles FC 50%, draw 24%, Minnesota United 25%. Our prediction is Los Angeles FC 2-1 Minnesota United.
Who is the player to watch in Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United?
Denis Bouanga of Los Angeles FC: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 44 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.