Monaco vs Nordsjælland Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa Conference League Gameweek 3
Europa Conference League · Thursday 5 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Stade Louis II., Monaco · updated 2026-10-22
Monaco welcome Nordsjælland to Stade Louis II. in Monaco in Europa Conference League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Monaco have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 100% of them. At home they average 4.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 33% win rate. Nordsjælland have played 7 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 2.6 and conceding 0.6 goals a game and winning 71% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 40% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Nordsjælland are narrow favourites at 51%, with the draw at 24% and Monaco at 25%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Monaco 1.22, Nordsjælland 1.83.
- Over 2.5 goals: 59% · both teams to score: 60%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (3 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Monaco: form and key numbers
In style Monaco take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.61 a match created (goals minus xG: +4.2).
- Shots: 13.0 a match, 5.7 on target.
- Possession: 55.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.98.
Nordsjælland: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 2.20 a match created (goals minus xG: +2.6).
- Shots: 18.1 a match, 6.1 on target.
- Possession: 59.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 57% of matches (25% away).
- Both teams scored in 29% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.05.
Monaco vs Nordsjælland: season averages side by side
| Monaco | Per match this season | Nordsjælland |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Matches | 7 |
| 3.0 | Goals scored | 2.6 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 0.6 |
| 1.61 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.20 |
| 13.0 | Shots | 18.1 |
| 5.7 | On target | 6.1 |
| 55.3 | Possession % | 59.4 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 57% |
| 100% | Both teams scored % | 29% |
| 3.3 | Corners | 6.0 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
| 6.98 | Average rating | 7.05 |
Players to watch
Monaco
- Lamine Camara CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 66 · Ball-winner, Long passer (top 1% of his position)
- Lukas Hradecky GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 57 · Secure passer, Shot-stopper (top 18% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Paris Brunner
Paris Brunner, 20 · Monaco · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 63
Paris Brunner, 20, plays as a centre-forward for Monaco in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in shots on target and goals. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 63
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots on target | 56% | 81% |
| Goals | 0.92 / 90 | 80% |
| Shots | 3.68 / 90 | 74% |
| Expected goals | 0.58 / 90 | 72% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.16 xG/shot | 56% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Accurate shooter.
- What Paris Brunner is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Paris Brunner's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Monaco vs Nordsjælland prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.22 for Monaco and 1.83 for Nordsjælland - with over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams scoring at 60%. Nordsjælland have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Monaco 1-2 Nordsjælland
Monaco vs Nordsjælland betting tips
- Tip 1: Nordsjælland win or draw (double chance) 75% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 59% by the model, 3.05 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 60% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Monaco vs Nordsjælland: questions and answers
When is Monaco vs Nordsjælland?
Monaco vs Nordsjælland is on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 3.
Where is Monaco vs Nordsjælland played?
At Stade Louis II., Monaco, Monaco's home ground.
Who will win Monaco vs Nordsjælland?
Nordsjælland are the favourites: Monaco 25%, draw 24%, Nordsjælland 51%. Our prediction is Monaco 1-2 Nordsjælland.
Who is the player to watch in Monaco vs Nordsjælland?
Paris Brunner of Monaco: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 63 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Monaco vs Nordsjælland?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.