Monza vs Cagliari: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Serie A · Monday 19 October 2026 · 16:30 UTC · U-Power Stadium, Monza · updated 2026-10-09
Monza host Cagliari in Serie A on Monday 19 October 2026 at U-Power Stadium. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Monza slight favourites at 42%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 27% and expects about 2.7 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Monza 1.47, Cagliari 1.24.
- Over 2.5 goals: 51% · both teams to score: 55%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Lorenzo Lucchesi
Lorenzo Lucchesi, 23 · Monza · CB · Box defender
Moneyball Scout picks Lorenzo Lucchesi as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 58 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 74, defensive 65).
- Pass accuracy: 95%, better than 97% of centre-backs
- Interceptions: 2.58 per 90 minutes, better than 96% of centre-backs
- Blocked shots: 1.07 per 90 minutes, better than 77% of centre-backs
Cagliari score 1.0 goals a match this season from 0.95 expected: stopping them runs through Lorenzo Lucchesi.
Scout's notes: Secure passer, Reads the game.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Monza | Per match this season | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 2.4 | Goals conceded | 0.4 |
| 1.71 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.95 |
| 1.28 | xG conceded | 1.73 |
| 14.4 | Shots | 10.8 |
| 6.0 | On target | 4.2 |
| 46.2 | Possession % | 40.8 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 60% |
| 100% | Both teams scored % | 20% |
| 4.4 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.0 |
| 6.70 | Average rating | 6.88 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Monza
- Samuele Birindelli midfielder · rating 6.95 · 5 apps
- Gustavo Varela forward · rating 6.94 · 4 apps
- Andrea Colpani midfielder · rating 6.90 · 4 apps
Cagliari
- Elia Caprile goalkeeper · rating 7.35 · 5 apps
- Alessandro Romano midfielder · rating 7.21 · 5 apps
- Juan Rodríguez defender · rating 7.17 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Napoli vs Frosinone Saturday 10 October 2026
- Cagliari vs Juventus Sunday 11 October 2026
- Atalanta vs Venezia Monday 12 October 2026
- Torino vs Udinese Monday 12 October 2026
- Frosinone vs Sassuolo Friday 16 October 2026
- Venezia vs Napoli Saturday 17 October 2026
- Bologna vs Inter Saturday 17 October 2026
- Roma vs Genoa Saturday 17 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.