Nashville SC vs New York RB Prediction and Betting Tips
MLS · Sunday 1 November 2026 · 21:30 UTC · GEODIS Park · updated 2026-10-25
Nashville SC welcome New York RB to GEODIS Park in MLS action on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 21:30 UTC.
Nashville SC have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 2.1 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 68% of them. At home they average 3.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 15 matches, with a 67% win rate. New York RB have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 35% of them. Away from home they average 1.1 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 15 matches, with a 45% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Nashville SC are clear favourites at 68%, with the draw at 19% and New York RB at 13%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Nashville SC 2.26, New York RB 0.90.
- Over 2.5 goals: 61% · both teams to score: 54%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (31 and 31 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Nashville SC: form and key numbers
In style Nashville SC keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.67 a match created, 1.23 conceded (goals minus xG: +14.1).
- Shots: 12.7 a match, 5.3 on target.
- Possession: 53.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 48% of matches (47% at home).
- Both teams scored in 45% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.97.
New York RB: form and key numbers
In style New York RB take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.69 a match created, 1.80 conceded (goals minus xG: -11.4).
- Shots: 14.1 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 52.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 16% of matches (60% away).
- Both teams scored in 58% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Nashville SC vs New York RB: season averages side by side
| Nashville SC | Per match this season | New York RB |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Matches | 31 |
| 2.1 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 0.7 | Goals conceded | 1.8 |
| 1.67 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.69 |
| 1.23 | xG conceded | 1.80 |
| 12.7 | Shots | 14.1 |
| 5.3 | On target | 4.7 |
| 53.9 | Possession % | 52.1 |
| 48% | Clean sheets % | 16% |
| 45% | Both teams scored % | 58% |
| 5.2 | Corners | 5.7 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.97 | Average rating | 6.78 |
Players to watch
Nashville SC
- Cristian Espinoza RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 42 · Crosser, Creator (top 1% of his position)
- Brian Schwake GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 39 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 33% of his position)
New York RB
- Eric-Maxim Choupo-Moting CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 42 · Rarely wastes a big chance, Accurate shooter (top 5% of his position)
- Julián Bazán CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 37 · Reads the game, Ball-winner (top 31% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Sam Surridge
Sam Surridge, 28 · Nashville SC · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 43
Sam Surridge, 28, plays as a centre-forward for Nashville SC in the MLS. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and shots on target. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 43
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 38
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.24 xG/shot | 98% |
| Shots on target | 56% | 95% |
| Expected goals | 0.75 / 90 | 78% |
| Goals | 0.68 / 90 | 62% |
| Aerial duels won | 1.81 / 90 | 26% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter.
- What Sam Surridge is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Sam Surridge's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Nashville SC vs New York RB prediction
Nashville SC should have more of the ball; Nashville SC go long and direct; New York RB like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 2.26 for Nashville SC and 0.90 for New York RB - with over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams scoring at 54%. Nashville SC have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Nashville SC 2-1 New York RB
Nashville SC vs New York RB betting tips
- Tip 1: Nashville SC to win 68% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 61% by the model, 3.16 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 11.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More MLS previews
- Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy Monday 26 October 2026
- Inter Miami vs Cincinnati Wednesday 28 October 2026
- New York City vs Atlanta United Wednesday 28 October 2026
- New England vs New York RB Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Charlotte vs CF Montréal Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Toronto vs DC United Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union Thursday 29 October 2026
- Dallas vs Columbus Crew Thursday 29 October 2026
Nashville SC vs New York RB: questions and answers
When is Nashville SC vs New York RB?
Nashville SC vs New York RB is on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 21:30 UTC, in MLS.
Where is Nashville SC vs New York RB played?
At GEODIS Park, Nashville SC's home ground.
Who will win Nashville SC vs New York RB?
Nashville SC are the favourites: Nashville SC 68%, draw 19%, New York RB 13%. Our prediction is Nashville SC 2-1 New York RB.
Who is the player to watch in Nashville SC vs New York RB?
Sam Surridge of Nashville SC: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 43 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Nashville SC vs New York RB?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Tags
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