New York City vs CF Montréal Prediction and Betting Tips
MLS · Saturday 31 October 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Citi Field, Bronx · updated 2026-10-25
New York City welcome CF Montréal to Citi Field in Bronx in MLS action on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
New York City have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 26% of them. At home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 15 matches, with a 50% win rate. CF Montréal have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 19% of them. Away from home they average 1.1 goals scored and 2.6 conceded over 15 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, New York City are narrow favourites at 57%, with the draw at 23% and CF Montréal at 20%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: New York City 1.92, CF Montréal 1.06.
- Over 2.5 goals: 57% · both teams to score: 56%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (31 and 31 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
New York City: form and key numbers
In style New York City keep the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.51 a match created, 1.43 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.0).
- Shots: 11.6 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 54.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 16% of matches (60% at home).
- Both teams scored in 68% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
CF Montréal: form and key numbers
In style CF Montréal cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.39 a match created, 1.85 conceded (goals minus xG: -7.1).
- Shots: 12.9 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 48.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (25% away).
- Both teams scored in 52% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.74.
New York City vs CF Montréal: season averages side by side
| New York City | Per match this season | CF Montréal |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Matches | 31 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 1.2 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 2.0 |
| 1.51 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.39 |
| 1.43 | xG conceded | 1.85 |
| 11.6 | Shots | 12.9 |
| 4.6 | On target | 4.8 |
| 54.0 | Possession % | 48.1 |
| 16% | Clean sheets % | 13% |
| 68% | Both teams scored % | 52% |
| 4.2 | Corners | 5.1 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 6.84 | Average rating | 6.74 |
Players to watch
New York City
- Tayvon Gray RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 38 · Hard to dribble past, Creator (top 22% of his position)
- Talles Magno LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 38 · Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume (top 4% of his position)
CF Montréal
- Iván Jaime AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 34 · Through-ball threat, Dribbler (top 6% of his position)
- Viktor Radojević LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 33 · Creator, Chance creator (top 28% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: James Sands
James Sands, 26 · New York City · DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 42
James Sands, 26, plays as a defensive midfielder for New York City in the MLS. Strongest for his role in dispossessed and dribbled past. Weakest in duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every defensive midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average defensive midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- DM · Defensive midfielder Natural, 42
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 40
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 35
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Dispossessed | 0.06 / 90 | 100% |
| Dribbled past | 0.32 / 90 | 92% |
| Blocked shots | 0.96 / 90 | 90% |
| Pass accuracy | 90% | 82% |
| Long balls | 3.07 / 90 | 58% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Anchor Defensive midfielder
- ★★★ Deep-lying playmaker Defensive midfielder
- ★★ Ball-winning midfielder Central midfielder
Scout's notes: Press-resistant, Hard to dribble past, Blocks shots.
- What James Sands is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open James Sands's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
New York City vs CF Montréal prediction
New York City should have more of the ball, with CF Montréal likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; CF Montréal work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.92 for New York City and 1.06 for CF Montréal - with over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams scoring at 56%. New York City have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: New York City 2-1 CF Montréal
New York City vs CF Montréal betting tips
- Tip 1: New York City to win 57% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 57% by the model, 2.98 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 56% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More MLS previews
- Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy Monday 26 October 2026
- Inter Miami vs Cincinnati Wednesday 28 October 2026
- New York City vs Atlanta United Wednesday 28 October 2026
- New England vs New York RB Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Charlotte vs CF Montréal Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Toronto vs DC United Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union Thursday 29 October 2026
- Dallas vs Columbus Crew Thursday 29 October 2026
New York City vs CF Montréal: questions and answers
When is New York City vs CF Montréal?
New York City vs CF Montréal is on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 18:00 UTC, in MLS.
Where is New York City vs CF Montréal played?
At Citi Field, Bronx, New York City's home ground.
Who will win New York City vs CF Montréal?
New York City are the favourites: New York City 57%, draw 23%, CF Montréal 20%. Our prediction is New York City 2-1 CF Montréal.
Who is the player to watch in New York City vs CF Montréal?
James Sands of New York City: a anchor with a Moneyball Score of 42 against every defensive midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in New York City vs CF Montréal?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.