New York RB vs Atlanta United Prediction and Betting Tips
MLS · Saturday 7 November 2026 · 21:00 UTC · Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison · updated 2026-10-25
New York RB welcome Atlanta United to Sports Illustrated Stadium in Harrison in MLS action on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 21:00 UTC.
New York RB have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 35% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 16 matches, with a 55% win rate. Atlanta United have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 26% of them. Away from home they average 1.1 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 15 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, New York RB are narrow favourites at 44%, with the draw at 25% and Atlanta United at 31%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: New York RB 1.70, Atlanta United 1.39.
- Over 2.5 goals: 60% · both teams to score: 62%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (31 and 31 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
New York RB: form and key numbers
In style New York RB take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.69 a match created, 1.80 conceded (goals minus xG: -11.4).
- Shots: 14.1 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 52.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 16% of matches (40% at home).
- Both teams scored in 58% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Atlanta United: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.46 a match created, 1.57 conceded (goals minus xG: -6.3).
- Shots: 13.1 a match, 4.0 on target.
- Possession: 50.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (75% away).
- Both teams scored in 65% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.80.
New York RB vs Atlanta United: season averages side by side
| New York RB | Per match this season | Atlanta United |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Matches | 31 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 1.7 |
| 1.69 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.46 |
| 1.80 | xG conceded | 1.57 |
| 14.1 | Shots | 13.1 |
| 4.7 | On target | 4.0 |
| 52.1 | Possession % | 50.8 |
| 16% | Clean sheets % | 13% |
| 58% | Both teams scored % | 65% |
| 5.7 | Corners | 4.9 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
| 6.78 | Average rating | 6.80 |
Players to watch
New York RB
- Eric-Maxim Choupo-Moting CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 42 · Rarely wastes a big chance, Accurate shooter (top 5% of his position)
- Julián Bazán CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 37 · Reads the game, Ball-winner (top 31% of his position)
Atlanta United
- Steven Alzate CMF · Box-to-box midfielder · Moneyball Score 36 · Secure passer, Dribbler (top 20% of his position)
- Mauricio Amaro CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 33 · Reads the game, Press-resistant (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Miguel Almirón
Miguel Almirón, 32 · Atlanta United · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 43
Miguel Almirón, 32, plays as a winger for Atlanta United in the MLS. Strongest for his role in expected goals and key passes. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 43
- RW · Winger Natural, 43
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 39
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.39 / 90 | 78% |
| Key passes | 2.48 / 90 | 69% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.29 / 90 | 67% |
| Big chances created | 0.44 / 90 | 64% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.06 / 90 | 63% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
- What Miguel Almirón is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Miguel Almirón's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
New York RB vs Atlanta United prediction
New York RB should have more of the ball; New York RB like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.70 for New York RB and 1.39 for Atlanta United - with over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams scoring at 62%. New York RB have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: New York RB 2-1 Atlanta United
New York RB vs Atlanta United betting tips
- Tip 1: New York RB win or draw (double chance) 69% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 60% by the model, 3.09 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 62% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 8.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 10.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More MLS previews
- Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy Monday 26 October 2026
- Inter Miami vs Cincinnati Wednesday 28 October 2026
- New York City vs Atlanta United Wednesday 28 October 2026
- New England vs New York RB Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Charlotte vs CF Montréal Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Toronto vs DC United Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union Thursday 29 October 2026
- Dallas vs Columbus Crew Thursday 29 October 2026
New York RB vs Atlanta United: questions and answers
When is New York RB vs Atlanta United?
New York RB vs Atlanta United is on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 21:00 UTC, in MLS.
Where is New York RB vs Atlanta United played?
At Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison, New York RB's home ground.
Who will win New York RB vs Atlanta United?
New York RB are the favourites: New York RB 44%, draw 25%, Atlanta United 31%. Our prediction is New York RB 2-1 Atlanta United.
Who is the player to watch in New York RB vs Atlanta United?
Miguel Almirón of Atlanta United: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 43 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in New York RB vs Atlanta United?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.