Parma vs Torino: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Serie A · Monday 19 October 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma · updated 2026-10-09
Parma host Torino in Serie A on Monday 19 October 2026 at Stadio Ennio Tardini. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Parma slight favourites at 42%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 29% and expects about 2.4 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Parma 1.33, Torino 1.08.
- Over 2.5 goals: 43% · both teams to score: 49%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Saúl Coco
Saúl Coco, 27 · Torino · CB · Ball-playing centre-back
Moneyball Scout picks Saúl Coco as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 55 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 57, defensive 57).
- Dribbled past: 0.00 per 90 minutes, better than 94% of centre-backs
- Passes: 68.63 per 90 minutes, better than 79% of centre-backs
- Pass accuracy: 91%, better than 71% of centre-backs
Parma score 0.8 goals a match this season from 0.82 expected: stopping them runs through Saúl Coco.
Scout's notes: Hard to dribble past.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Parma | Per match this season | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 0.8 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 1.6 |
| 0.82 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.94 |
| 1.50 | xG conceded | 1.84 |
| 8.2 | Shots | 9.4 |
| 2.8 | On target | 3.0 |
| 42.6 | Possession % | 53.8 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 80% |
| 3.4 | Corners | 3.4 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 0.8 |
| 6.69 | Average rating | 6.72 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Parma
- Edoardo Corvi goalkeeper · rating 7.14 · 5 apps
- Christian Ordóñez midfielder · rating 6.92 · 4 apps
- Emanuele Valeri midfielder · rating 6.85 · 5 apps
Torino
- Ché Adams forward · rating 6.94 · 3 apps
- Alieu Njie forward · rating 6.93 · 3 apps
- Saúl Coco defender · rating 6.92 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Napoli vs Frosinone Saturday 10 October 2026
- Cagliari vs Juventus Sunday 11 October 2026
- Atalanta vs Venezia Monday 12 October 2026
- Torino vs Udinese Monday 12 October 2026
- Frosinone vs Sassuolo Friday 16 October 2026
- Venezia vs Napoli Saturday 17 October 2026
- Bologna vs Inter Saturday 17 October 2026
- Roma vs Genoa Saturday 17 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.