Philadelphia Union vs Toronto Prediction and Betting Tips
MLS · Saturday 7 November 2026 · 21:00 UTC · Subaru Park, Chester · updated 2026-10-25
Philadelphia Union welcome Toronto to Subaru Park in Chester in MLS action on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 21:00 UTC.
Philadelphia Union have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 42% of them. At home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.1 conceded over 16 matches, with a 54% win rate. Toronto have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 26% of them. Away from home they average 0.9 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 15 matches, with a 38% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Philadelphia Union are clear favourites at 65%, with the draw at 19% and Toronto at 16%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Philadelphia Union 2.48, Toronto 1.19.
- Over 2.5 goals: 71% · both teams to score: 64%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (31 and 31 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Philadelphia Union: form and key numbers
In style Philadelphia Union press high, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.05 a match created, 1.29 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.5).
- Shots: 16.9 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 47.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 19% of matches (83% at home).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 4.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Toronto: form and key numbers
In style Toronto are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.29 a match created, 1.85 conceded (goals minus xG: +7.9).
- Shots: 12.3 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 44.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 77% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.79.
Philadelphia Union vs Toronto: season averages side by side
| Philadelphia Union | Per match this season | Toronto |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Matches | 31 |
| 2.0 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 1.6 | Goals conceded | 1.9 |
| 2.05 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.29 |
| 1.29 | xG conceded | 1.85 |
| 16.9 | Shots | 12.3 |
| 5.4 | On target | 4.5 |
| 47.3 | Possession % | 44.9 |
| 19% | Clean sheets % | 13% |
| 71% | Both teams scored % | 77% |
| 5.9 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.87 | Average rating | 6.79 |
Players to watch
Philadelphia Union
- Cavan Sullivan RMF · Wide playmaker · Moneyball Score 44 · Dribbler, Gets into scoring positions (top 7% of his position)
- Milan Iloski CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 40 · Chance creator, Gets into scoring positions (top 12% of his position)
Toronto
- Raheem Edwards LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 41 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- Matheus Pereira LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 31 · Hard to dribble past, Creator (top 17% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Alonso Coello
Alonso Coello, 27 · Toronto · CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 46
Alonso Coello, 27, plays as a central midfielder for Toronto in the MLS. Strongest for his role in key passes and interceptions. Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 46
- DM · Defensive midfielder Natural, 40
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 2.80 / 90 | 93% |
| Interceptions | 1.97 / 90 | 90% |
| Long balls | 3.76 / 90 | 85% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.24 / 90 | 82% |
| Dispossessed | 0.48 / 90 | 69% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★★ Ball-winning midfielder Central midfielder
- ★★ Deep-lying playmaker Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Reads the game, Long passer.
- What Alonso Coello is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Alonso Coello's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Philadelphia Union vs Toronto prediction
Philadelphia Union should have more of the ball; Philadelphia Union are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Toronto work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals - 2.48 for Philadelphia Union and 1.19 for Toronto - with over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams scoring at 64%. Philadelphia Union have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Philadelphia Union 3-1 Toronto
Philadelphia Union vs Toronto betting tips
- Tip 1: Philadelphia Union to win 65% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 71% by the model, 3.67 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 64% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 11.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 10.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Philadelphia Union vs Toronto: questions and answers
When is Philadelphia Union vs Toronto?
Philadelphia Union vs Toronto is on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 21:00 UTC, in MLS.
Where is Philadelphia Union vs Toronto played?
At Subaru Park, Chester, Philadelphia Union's home ground.
Who will win Philadelphia Union vs Toronto?
Philadelphia Union are the favourites: Philadelphia Union 65%, draw 19%, Toronto 16%. Our prediction is Philadelphia Union 3-1 Toronto.
Who is the player to watch in Philadelphia Union vs Toronto?
Alonso Coello of Toronto: a playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 46 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Philadelphia Union vs Toronto?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 71%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.