Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo Prediction and Betting Tips
MLS · Monday 2 November 2026 · 02:45 UTC · Providence Park, Portland · updated 2026-10-25
Portland Timbers welcome Houston Dynamo to Providence Park in Portland in MLS action on Monday 2 November 2026, kick-off 02:45 UTC.
Portland Timbers have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 32% of them. At home they average 2.1 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 16 matches, with a 80% win rate. Houston Dynamo have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 42% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 15 matches, with a 38% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Portland Timbers are narrow favourites at 46%, with the draw at 26% and Houston Dynamo at 27%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Portland Timbers 1.57, Houston Dynamo 1.16.
- Over 2.5 goals: 51% · both teams to score: 55%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (31 and 31 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Portland Timbers: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.51 a match created, 1.40 conceded (goals minus xG: +7.2).
- Shots: 13.7 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 51.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 6% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 74% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Houston Dynamo: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.12 a match created, 1.53 conceded (goals minus xG: +6.2).
- Shots: 13.0 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 48.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 39% of matches (42% away).
- Both teams scored in 42% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 8.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo: season averages side by side
| Portland Timbers | Per match this season | Houston Dynamo |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Matches | 31 |
| 1.7 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 1.9 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.51 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.12 |
| 1.40 | xG conceded | 1.53 |
| 13.7 | Shots | 13.0 |
| 4.7 | On target | 4.3 |
| 51.1 | Possession % | 48.3 |
| 6% | Clean sheets % | 39% |
| 74% | Both teams scored % | 42% |
| 4.8 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
| 6.86 | Average rating | 6.86 |
Players to watch
Portland Timbers
- Kristoffer Velde LWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 46 · Draws fouls, Crosser (top 7% of his position)
- José Luis Caicedo Barrera DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 43 · Blocks shots, Long passer (top 17% of his position)
Houston Dynamo
- Jack McGlynn CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 44 · Creator, Chance creator (top 2% of his position)
- Jonathan Bond GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 40 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Guilherme
Guilherme, 31 · Houston Dynamo · LWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 48
Guilherme, 31, plays as a winger for Houston Dynamo in the MLS. Strongest for his role in fouls won and accurate crosses. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 48
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 45
- ST · Centre-forward Accomplished, 38
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls won | 3.44 / 90 | 97% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.26 / 90 | 77% |
| Key passes | 2.46 / 90 | 69% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.32 / 90 | 67% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.27 / 90 | 59% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Draws fouls.
⚠ 15 goals from only 6.8 xG: finishing this far above his chances rarely lasts: check it is not a one-season wonder.
- What Guilherme is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo prediction
Portland Timbers should have more of the ball. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.57 for Portland Timbers and 1.16 for Houston Dynamo - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. Portland Timbers have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Portland Timbers 2-1 Houston Dynamo
Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo betting tips
- Tip 1: Portland Timbers win or draw (double chance) 73% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.73 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 14.5 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo: questions and answers
When is Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo?
Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo is on Monday 2 November 2026, kick-off 02:45 UTC, in MLS.
Where is Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo played?
At Providence Park, Portland, Portland Timbers's home ground.
Who will win Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo?
Portland Timbers are the favourites: Portland Timbers 46%, draw 26%, Houston Dynamo 27%. Our prediction is Portland Timbers 2-1 Houston Dynamo.
Who is the player to watch in Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo?
Guilherme of Houston Dynamo: a classic winger with a Moneyball Score of 48 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.