Riga vs Jablonec Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa Conference League Gameweek 3
Europa Conference League · Thursday 5 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Stadions Skonto, Riga · updated 2026-10-22
Riga welcome Jablonec to Stadions Skonto in Riga in Europa Conference League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Riga have played 7 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 57% of them. At home they average 2.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 75% win rate. Jablonec have played 7 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 57% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Riga are narrow favourites at 45%, with the draw at 29% and Jablonec at 26%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Riga 1.38, Jablonec 0.99.
- Over 2.5 goals: 42% · both teams to score: 48%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Riga: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.91 a match created (goals minus xG: +6.6).
- Shots: 22.6 a match, 8.7 on target.
- Possession: 58.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 29% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.66.
Jablonec: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.94 a match created (goals minus xG: +4.4).
- Shots: 8.1 a match, 3.3 on target.
- Possession: 45.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 43% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.57.
Riga vs Jablonec: season averages side by side
| Riga | Per match this season | Jablonec |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 7 |
| 1.9 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 1.1 |
| 0.91 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.94 |
| 22.6 | Shots | 8.1 |
| 8.7 | On target | 3.3 |
| 58.6 | Possession % | 45.4 |
| 29% | Clean sheets % | 43% |
| 71% | Both teams scored % | 43% |
| 6.9 | Corners | 3.3 |
| 2.1 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.66 | Average rating | 6.57 |
Riga vs Jablonec prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals - 1.38 for Riga and 0.99 for Jablonec - with over 2.5 goals at 42% and both teams scoring at 48%. Riga have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Riga 1-0 Jablonec
Riga vs Jablonec betting tips
- Tip 1: Riga win or draw (double chance) 74% between them
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 58% by the model, 2.36 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 10.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa Conference League previews
- Kairat vs Panathinaikos Thursday 22 October 2026
- Trabzonspor vs Hearts Thursday 22 October 2026
- Pafos FC vs Riga Thursday 22 October 2026
- Inter Club d'Escaldes vs Universitatea Craiova Thursday 22 October 2026
- Getafe vs Lugano Thursday 22 October 2026
- Kauno Žalgiris vs Brann Thursday 22 October 2026
- Jablonec vs Brighton & Hove Albion Thursday 22 October 2026
- Crvena Zvezda vs FC København Thursday 22 October 2026
Riga vs Jablonec: questions and answers
When is Riga vs Jablonec?
Riga vs Jablonec is on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 3.
Where is Riga vs Jablonec played?
At Stadions Skonto, Riga, Riga's home ground.
Who will win Riga vs Jablonec?
Riga are the favourites: Riga 45%, draw 29%, Jablonec 26%. Our prediction is Riga 1-0 Jablonec.
How many goals will there be in Riga vs Jablonec?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 42%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.