San Diego vs Sporting KC Prediction and Betting Tips
MLS · Sunday 8 November 2026 · 00:00 UTC · Snapdragon Stadium · updated 2026-10-25
San Diego welcome Sporting KC to Snapdragon Stadium in MLS action on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC.
San Diego have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 26% of them. At home they average 2.3 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 16 matches, with a 75% win rate. Sporting KC have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.5 goals a game and winning 19% of them. Away from home they average 0.9 goals scored and 2.9 conceded over 15 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, San Diego are clear favourites at 65%, with the draw at 19% and Sporting KC at 16%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: San Diego 2.43, Sporting KC 1.15.
- Over 2.5 goals: 69% · both teams to score: 63%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (31 and 31 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
San Diego: form and key numbers
In style San Diego keep the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.68 a match created, 1.46 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.8).
- Shots: 12.2 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 60.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 23% of matches (71% at home).
- Both teams scored in 61% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.9 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 8.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Sporting KC: form and key numbers
In style Sporting KC are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.18 a match created, 1.83 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.3).
- Shots: 11.1 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 44.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 3% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 65% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.69.
San Diego vs Sporting KC: season averages side by side
| San Diego | Per match this season | Sporting KC |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Matches | 31 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 1.2 |
| 1.9 | Goals conceded | 2.5 |
| 1.68 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.18 |
| 1.46 | xG conceded | 1.83 |
| 12.2 | Shots | 11.1 |
| 4.7 | On target | 4.2 |
| 60.2 | Possession % | 44.8 |
| 23% | Clean sheets % | 3% |
| 61% | Both teams scored % | 65% |
| 4.9 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.86 | Average rating | 6.69 |
Players to watch
San Diego
- Cédric Bakambu CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 50 · Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter (top 2% of his position)
- Alejandro Alvarado CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 44 · Secure passer, Dribbler (top 1% of his position)
Sporting KC
- Manu García AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 36 · Through-ball threat, Big-chance creator (top 1% of his position)
- André Luiz RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 36 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 15% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Anders Dreyer
Anders Dreyer, 28 · San Diego · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 53
Anders Dreyer, 28, plays as a winger for San Diego in the MLS. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and dispossessed. Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 53
- SS · Second striker Competent, 32
- RM · Wide midfielder Competent, 25
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 1.81 / 90 | 96% |
| Dispossessed | 0.58 / 90 | 95% |
| Expected goals | 0.47 / 90 | 91% |
| Key passes | 2.70 / 90 | 80% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.31 / 90 | 78% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★½ Link-up forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Crosser, Press-resistant, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Anders Dreyer is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Anders Dreyer's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
San Diego vs Sporting KC prediction
San Diego should have more of the ball, with Sporting KC likely to sit in a compact block and look to break. Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals - 2.43 for San Diego and 1.15 for Sporting KC - with over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams scoring at 63%. San Diego have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: San Diego 3-1 Sporting KC
San Diego vs Sporting KC betting tips
- Tip 1: San Diego to win 65% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 69% by the model, 3.58 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 63% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 14.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 8.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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San Diego vs Sporting KC: questions and answers
When is San Diego vs Sporting KC?
San Diego vs Sporting KC is on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC, in MLS.
Where is San Diego vs Sporting KC played?
At Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego's home ground.
Who will win San Diego vs Sporting KC?
San Diego are the favourites: San Diego 65%, draw 19%, Sporting KC 16%. Our prediction is San Diego 3-1 Sporting KC.
Who is the player to watch in San Diego vs Sporting KC?
Anders Dreyer of San Diego: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 53 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in San Diego vs Sporting KC?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 69%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.