SJ Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids Prediction and Betting Tips
MLS · Thursday 29 October 2026 · 02:30 UTC · PayPal Park, San Jose · updated 2026-10-25
SJ Earthquakes welcome Colorado Rapids to PayPal Park in San Jose in MLS action on Thursday 29 October 2026, kick-off 02:30 UTC.
SJ Earthquakes have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 42% of them. At home they average 1.7 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 15 matches, with a 46% win rate. Colorado Rapids have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 39% of them. Away from home they average 0.9 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 15 matches, with a 17% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: SJ Earthquakes 40%, the draw 28%, Colorado Rapids 32%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: SJ Earthquakes 1.37, Colorado Rapids 1.20.
- Over 2.5 goals: 47% · both teams to score: 53%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (31 and 31 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
SJ Earthquakes: form and key numbers
In style SJ Earthquakes cross a lot, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.76 a match created, 1.42 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.4).
- Shots: 13.3 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 48.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 23% of matches (57% at home).
- Both teams scored in 65% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.82.
Colorado Rapids: form and key numbers
In style Colorado Rapids keep the ball, press high.
- Expected goals: 1.54 a match created, 0.93 conceded (goals minus xG: -5.7).
- Shots: 12.4 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 55.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 35% of matches (27% away).
- Both teams scored in 45% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.79.
SJ Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids: season averages side by side
| SJ Earthquakes | Per match this season | Colorado Rapids |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Matches | 31 |
| 1.7 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.76 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.54 |
| 1.42 | xG conceded | 0.93 |
| 13.3 | Shots | 12.4 |
| 4.8 | On target | 4.3 |
| 48.7 | Possession % | 55.7 |
| 23% | Clean sheets % | 35% |
| 65% | Both teams scored % | 45% |
| 6.0 | Corners | 5.1 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
| 6.82 | Average rating | 6.79 |
Players to watch
SJ Earthquakes
- Paul Marie RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 37 · Creator, Chance creator (top 8% of his position)
- DeJuan Jones LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 36 · Crosser, Reads the game (top 14% of his position)
Colorado Rapids
- Morgan Whittaker RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 41 · Crosser, Gets into scoring positions (top 23% of his position)
- Donavan Phillip CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 36 · Accurate shooter, Takes high-quality shots (top 11% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Niko Tsakiris
Niko Tsakiris, 21 · SJ Earthquakes · CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 37
Niko Tsakiris, 21, plays as a central midfielder for SJ Earthquakes in the MLS. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in interceptions. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 37
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 37
- RW · Winger Natural, 37
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 3.30 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.36 / 90 | 97% |
| Expected goals | 0.29 / 90 | 91% |
| Long balls | 2.52 / 90 | 56% |
| Successful dribbles | 0.66 / 90 | 38% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★½ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★★½ Creator Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Niko Tsakiris is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Niko Tsakiris's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
SJ Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids prediction
Colorado Rapids should have more of the ball, with SJ Earthquakes likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; SJ Earthquakes work the ball wide and cross; Colorado Rapids press high to win the ball back. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.37 for SJ Earthquakes and 1.20 for Colorado Rapids - with over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams scoring at 53%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: SJ Earthquakes 1-1 Colorado Rapids
SJ Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 40%
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 53% by the model, 2.57 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 10.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 11.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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SJ Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids: questions and answers
When is SJ Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids?
SJ Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids is on Thursday 29 October 2026, kick-off 02:30 UTC, in MLS.
Where is SJ Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids played?
At PayPal Park, San Jose, SJ Earthquakes's home ground.
Who will win SJ Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids?
It is close: SJ Earthquakes 40%, draw 28%, Colorado Rapids 32%. Our prediction is SJ Earthquakes 1-1 Colorado Rapids.
Who is the player to watch in SJ Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids?
Niko Tsakiris of SJ Earthquakes: a playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 37 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in SJ Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.