SJ Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake Prediction and Betting Tips
MLS · Saturday 31 October 2026 · 21:00 UTC · PayPal Park, San Jose · updated 2026-10-25
SJ Earthquakes welcome Real Salt Lake to PayPal Park in San Jose in MLS action on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 21:00 UTC.
SJ Earthquakes have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 42% of them. At home they average 1.7 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 15 matches, with a 46% win rate. Real Salt Lake have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 35% of them. Away from home they average 1.1 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 15 matches, with a 18% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, SJ Earthquakes are narrow favourites at 51%, with the draw at 24% and Real Salt Lake at 25%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: SJ Earthquakes 1.85, Real Salt Lake 1.24.
- Over 2.5 goals: 60% · both teams to score: 61%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (31 and 31 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
SJ Earthquakes: form and key numbers
In style SJ Earthquakes cross a lot, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.76 a match created, 1.42 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.4).
- Shots: 13.3 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 48.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 23% of matches (57% at home).
- Both teams scored in 65% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.82.
Real Salt Lake: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.47 a match created, 1.64 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.5).
- Shots: 14.2 a match, 5.5 on target.
- Possession: 49.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 68% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
SJ Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake: season averages side by side
| SJ Earthquakes | Per match this season | Real Salt Lake |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Matches | 31 |
| 1.7 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 1.6 |
| 1.76 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.47 |
| 1.42 | xG conceded | 1.64 |
| 13.3 | Shots | 14.2 |
| 4.8 | On target | 5.5 |
| 48.7 | Possession % | 49.2 |
| 23% | Clean sheets % | 13% |
| 65% | Both teams scored % | 68% |
| 6.0 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.82 | Average rating | 6.87 |
Players to watch
SJ Earthquakes
- Niko Tsakiris CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 37 · Chance creator, Creator (top 2% of his position)
- Paul Marie RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 37 · Creator, Chance creator (top 8% of his position)
Real Salt Lake
- Saba Lobjanidze LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 40 · Crosser, Press-resistant (top 10% of his position)
- Victor Olatunji CF · Pressing forward · Moneyball Score 40 · Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter (top 8% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Diego Luna
Diego Luna, 23 · Real Salt Lake · LMF · Wide playmaker · Moneyball Score 39
Diego Luna, 23, plays as a wide midfielder for Real Salt Lake in the MLS. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wide midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wide midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LM · Wide midfielder Natural, 39
- LW · Winger Natural, 39
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 36
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 3.30 / 90 | 93% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.38 / 90 | 93% |
| Expected goals | 0.22 / 90 | 64% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.17 / 90 | 50% |
| Interceptions | 0.88 / 90 | 21% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★ Creator Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator.
- What Diego Luna is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Diego Luna's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
SJ Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake prediction
Real Salt Lake should have more of the ball; SJ Earthquakes work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.85 for SJ Earthquakes and 1.24 for Real Salt Lake - with over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams scoring at 61%. SJ Earthquakes have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: SJ Earthquakes 2-1 Real Salt Lake
SJ Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake betting tips
- Tip 1: SJ Earthquakes win or draw (double chance) 75% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 60% by the model, 3.10 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 61% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.5 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 10.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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SJ Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake: questions and answers
When is SJ Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake?
SJ Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake is on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 21:00 UTC, in MLS.
Where is SJ Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake played?
At PayPal Park, San Jose, SJ Earthquakes's home ground.
Who will win SJ Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake?
SJ Earthquakes are the favourites: SJ Earthquakes 51%, draw 24%, Real Salt Lake 25%. Our prediction is SJ Earthquakes 2-1 Real Salt Lake.
Who is the player to watch in SJ Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake?
Diego Luna of Real Salt Lake: a wide playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 39 against every wide midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in SJ Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.