Sporting KC vs Dallas Prediction and Betting Tips
MLS · Saturday 31 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Children's Mercy Park, Kansas City · updated 2026-10-25
Sporting KC welcome Dallas to Children's Mercy Park in Kansas City in MLS action on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Sporting KC have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.5 goals a game and winning 19% of them. At home they average 1.4 goals scored and 2.1 conceded over 16 matches, with a 50% win rate. Dallas have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 48% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 16 matches, with a 47% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Dallas are narrow favourites at 53%, with the draw at 23% and Sporting KC at 25%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Sporting KC 1.33, Dallas 2.00.
- Over 2.5 goals: 65% · both teams to score: 64%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (31 and 31 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Sporting KC: form and key numbers
In style Sporting KC are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.18 a match created, 1.83 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.3).
- Shots: 11.1 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 44.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 3% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 65% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.69.
Dallas: form and key numbers
In style Dallas are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.56 a match created, 1.64 conceded (goals minus xG: +9.6).
- Shots: 12.4 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 42.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 26% of matches (38% away).
- Both teams scored in 61% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Sporting KC vs Dallas: season averages side by side
| Sporting KC | Per match this season | Dallas |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Matches | 31 |
| 1.2 | Goals scored | 1.9 |
| 2.5 | Goals conceded | 1.5 |
| 1.18 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.56 |
| 1.83 | xG conceded | 1.64 |
| 11.1 | Shots | 12.4 |
| 4.2 | On target | 4.7 |
| 44.8 | Possession % | 42.6 |
| 3% | Clean sheets % | 26% |
| 65% | Both teams scored % | 61% |
| 4.0 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.69 | Average rating | 6.84 |
Players to watch
Sporting KC
- Manu García AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 36 · Through-ball threat, Big-chance creator (top 1% of his position)
- André Luiz RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 36 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 15% of his position)
Dallas
- Santiago Moreno RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 44 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 11% of his position)
- Sam Sarver RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 36 · Draws fouls, Gets into scoring positions (top 7% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Petar Musa
Petar Musa, 28 · Dallas · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 51
Petar Musa, 28, plays as a centre-forward for Dallas in the MLS. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and expected goals. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 51
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 45
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.20 xG/shot | 90% |
| Expected goals | 0.78 / 90 | 83% |
| Shots on target | 52% | 82% |
| Goals | 0.76 / 90 | 70% |
| Shots | 3.99 / 90 | 58% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions, Accurate shooter.
- What Petar Musa is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Petar Musa's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Sporting KC vs Dallas prediction
Sporting KC should have more of the ball; Dallas go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 1.33 for Sporting KC and 2.00 for Dallas - with over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams scoring at 64%. Dallas have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Sporting KC 1-2 Dallas
Sporting KC vs Dallas betting tips
- Tip 1: Dallas win or draw (double chance) 75% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 65% by the model, 3.33 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 64% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 9.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 8.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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- Toronto vs DC United Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union Thursday 29 October 2026
- Dallas vs Columbus Crew Thursday 29 October 2026
Sporting KC vs Dallas: questions and answers
When is Sporting KC vs Dallas?
Sporting KC vs Dallas is on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in MLS.
Where is Sporting KC vs Dallas played?
At Children's Mercy Park, Kansas City, Sporting KC's home ground.
Who will win Sporting KC vs Dallas?
Dallas are the favourites: Sporting KC 25%, draw 23%, Dallas 53%. Our prediction is Sporting KC 1-2 Dallas.
Who is the player to watch in Sporting KC vs Dallas?
Petar Musa of Dallas: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 51 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Sporting KC vs Dallas?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.