St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers Prediction and Betting Tips
MLS · Thursday 29 October 2026 · 00:30 UTC · Energizer Park · updated 2026-10-25
St. Louis City welcome Portland Timbers to Energizer Park in MLS action on Thursday 29 October 2026, kick-off 00:30 UTC.
St. Louis City have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 45% of them. At home they average 2.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 15 matches, with a 64% win rate. Portland Timbers have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 32% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 2.1 conceded over 15 matches, with a 20% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, St. Louis City are narrow favourites at 51%, with the draw at 24% and Portland Timbers at 25%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: St. Louis City 1.84, Portland Timbers 1.25.
- Over 2.5 goals: 60% · both teams to score: 61%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (31 and 31 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
St. Louis City: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.52 a match created, 1.27 conceded (goals minus xG: +8.8).
- Shots: 13.2 a match, 4.9 on target.
- Possession: 52.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 16% of matches (60% at home).
- Both teams scored in 68% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Portland Timbers: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.51 a match created, 1.40 conceded (goals minus xG: +7.2).
- Shots: 13.7 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 51.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 6% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 74% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers: season averages side by side
| St. Louis City | Per match this season | Portland Timbers |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Matches | 31 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 1.7 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 1.9 |
| 1.52 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.51 |
| 1.27 | xG conceded | 1.40 |
| 13.2 | Shots | 13.7 |
| 4.9 | On target | 4.7 |
| 52.2 | Possession % | 51.1 |
| 16% | Clean sheets % | 6% |
| 68% | Both teams scored % | 74% |
| 5.2 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.87 | Average rating | 6.86 |
Players to watch
St. Louis City
- Carlo Holse AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 36 · Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume (top 9% of his position)
- Fallou Fall CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 33 · Ball-winner, Blocks shots (top 32% of his position)
Portland Timbers
- José Luis Caicedo Barrera DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 43 · Blocks shots, Long passer (top 17% of his position)
- Kevin Kelsy CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 41 · Takes high-quality shots, Dominant in the air (top 13% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Kristoffer Velde
Kristoffer Velde, 27 · Portland Timbers · LWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 46
Kristoffer Velde, 27, plays as a winger for Portland Timbers in the MLS. Strongest for his role in fouls won and accurate crosses. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 46
- RW · Winger Natural, 46
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 42
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls won | 3.07 / 90 | 93% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.50 / 90 | 88% |
| Shots | 3.49 / 90 | 72% |
| Big chances created | 0.42 / 90 | 62% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.26 / 90 | 56% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★½ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Draws fouls, Crosser.
- What Kristoffer Velde is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Kristoffer Velde's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers prediction
St. Louis City should have more of the ball. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.84 for St. Louis City and 1.25 for Portland Timbers - with over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams scoring at 61%. St. Louis City have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: St. Louis City 2-1 Portland Timbers
St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers betting tips
- Tip 1: St. Louis City win or draw (double chance) 75% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 60% by the model, 3.09 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 61% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 9.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers: questions and answers
When is St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers?
St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers is on Thursday 29 October 2026, kick-off 00:30 UTC, in MLS.
Where is St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers played?
At Energizer Park, St. Louis City's home ground.
Who will win St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers?
St. Louis City are the favourites: St. Louis City 51%, draw 24%, Portland Timbers 25%. Our prediction is St. Louis City 2-1 Portland Timbers.
Who is the player to watch in St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers?
Kristoffer Velde of Portland Timbers: a classic winger with a Moneyball Score of 46 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.