St. Louis City vs San Diego Prediction and Betting Tips
MLS · Saturday 31 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Energizer Park · updated 2026-10-25
St. Louis City welcome San Diego to Energizer Park in MLS action on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
St. Louis City have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 45% of them. At home they average 2.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 15 matches, with a 64% win rate. San Diego have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 26% of them. Away from home they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.9 conceded over 15 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, St. Louis City are narrow favourites at 50%, with the draw at 24% and San Diego at 27%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: St. Louis City 1.87, San Diego 1.32.
- Over 2.5 goals: 62% · both teams to score: 63%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (31 and 31 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
St. Louis City: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.52 a match created, 1.27 conceded (goals minus xG: +8.8).
- Shots: 13.2 a match, 4.9 on target.
- Possession: 52.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 16% of matches (60% at home).
- Both teams scored in 68% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
San Diego: form and key numbers
In style San Diego keep the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.68 a match created, 1.46 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.8).
- Shots: 12.2 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 60.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 23% of matches (29% away).
- Both teams scored in 61% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.9 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 8.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
St. Louis City vs San Diego: season averages side by side
| St. Louis City | Per match this season | San Diego |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Matches | 31 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 1.9 |
| 1.52 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.68 |
| 1.27 | xG conceded | 1.46 |
| 13.2 | Shots | 12.2 |
| 4.9 | On target | 4.7 |
| 52.2 | Possession % | 60.2 |
| 16% | Clean sheets % | 23% |
| 68% | Both teams scored % | 61% |
| 5.2 | Corners | 4.9 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
| 6.87 | Average rating | 6.86 |
Players to watch
St. Louis City
- Carlo Holse AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 36 · Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume (top 9% of his position)
- Fallou Fall CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 33 · Ball-winner, Blocks shots (top 32% of his position)
San Diego
- Cédric Bakambu CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 50 · Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter (top 2% of his position)
- Alejandro Alvarado CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 44 · Secure passer, Dribbler (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Anders Dreyer
Anders Dreyer, 28 · San Diego · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 53
Anders Dreyer, 28, plays as a winger for San Diego in the MLS. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and dispossessed. Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 53
- SS · Second striker Competent, 32
- RM · Wide midfielder Competent, 25
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 1.81 / 90 | 96% |
| Dispossessed | 0.58 / 90 | 95% |
| Expected goals | 0.47 / 90 | 91% |
| Key passes | 2.70 / 90 | 80% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.31 / 90 | 78% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★½ Link-up forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Crosser, Press-resistant, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Anders Dreyer is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Anders Dreyer's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
St. Louis City vs San Diego prediction
San Diego should have more of the ball. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.87 for St. Louis City and 1.32 for San Diego - with over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams scoring at 63%. St. Louis City have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: St. Louis City 2-1 San Diego
St. Louis City vs San Diego betting tips
- Tip 1: St. Louis City win or draw (double chance) 73% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 62% by the model, 3.19 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 63% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 14.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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St. Louis City vs San Diego: questions and answers
When is St. Louis City vs San Diego?
St. Louis City vs San Diego is on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in MLS.
Where is St. Louis City vs San Diego played?
At Energizer Park, St. Louis City's home ground.
Who will win St. Louis City vs San Diego?
St. Louis City are the favourites: St. Louis City 50%, draw 24%, San Diego 27%. Our prediction is St. Louis City 2-1 San Diego.
Who is the player to watch in St. Louis City vs San Diego?
Anders Dreyer of San Diego: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 53 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in St. Louis City vs San Diego?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.