Vitória vs Fluminense Prediction and Betting Tips | Brasileirão Gameweek 34
Brasileirão · Friday 6 November 2026 · 23:00 UTC · Estádio Manoel Barradas, Salvador · updated 2026-10-25
Vitória welcome Fluminense to Estádio Manoel Barradas in Salvador in Brasileirão Gameweek 34 action on Friday 6 November 2026, kick-off 23:00 UTC.
Vitória have played 32 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 31% of them. At home they average 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 16 matches, with a 100% win rate. Fluminense have played 32 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 44% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over 16 matches, with a 21% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Vitória 31%, the draw 28%, Fluminense 41%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Vitória 1.20, Fluminense 1.40.
- Over 2.5 goals: 48% · both teams to score: 53%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (32 and 32 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Vitória: form and key numbers
In style Vitória are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.03 a match created, 1.41 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.0).
- Shots: 12.1 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 44.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 34% of matches (91% at home).
- Both teams scored in 44% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Fluminense: form and key numbers
In style Fluminense keep the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.36 a match created, 1.38 conceded (goals minus xG: +6.4).
- Shots: 14.7 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 58.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 19% of matches (17% away).
- Both teams scored in 72% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
Vitória vs Fluminense: season averages side by side
| Vitória | Per match this season | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Matches | 32 |
| 1.1 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.03 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.36 |
| 1.41 | xG conceded | 1.38 |
| 12.1 | Shots | 14.7 |
| 4.2 | On target | 5.6 |
| 44.6 | Possession % | 58.6 |
| 34% | Clean sheets % | 19% |
| 44% | Both teams scored % | 72% |
| 4.3 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
| 6.78 | Average rating | 6.91 |
Players to watch
Vitória
- Mateusinho RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 65 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 16% of his position)
- Caíque Gonçalves DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 50 · Blocks shots, Secure passer (top 5% of his position)
Fluminense
- Igor Rabello CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 67 · Hard to dribble past, Blocks shots (top 8% of his position)
- Jefferson Savarino AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 57 · Secure passer, High shot volume (top 10% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Luciano Acosta
Luciano Acosta, 32 · Fluminense · AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 66
Luciano Acosta, 32, plays as an attacking midfielder for Fluminense in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in successful dribbles and expected assists (est.). Weakest in through balls. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 66
- ST · Centre-forward Accomplished, 49
- LW · Winger Competent, 40
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Successful dribbles | 2.07 / 90 | 95% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.36 / 90 | 90% |
| Key passes | 2.90 / 90 | 85% |
| Big chances created | 0.59 / 90 | 85% |
| Dispossessed | 0.89 / 90 | 81% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★½ Dribbling playmaker Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Dribbler, Creator, Chance creator.
- What Luciano Acosta is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Luciano Acosta's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Vitória vs Fluminense prediction
Fluminense should have more of the ball, with Vitória likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Vitória go long and direct; Fluminense like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.20 for Vitória and 1.40 for Fluminense - with over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams scoring at 53%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Vitória 1-1 Fluminense
Vitória vs Fluminense betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 41%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.60 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (48%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 12.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 9.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Brasileirão previews
- Coritiba vs Grêmio Monday 26 October 2026
- Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro Monday 26 October 2026
- Bragantino vs Chapecoense Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Santos vs Palmeiras Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Fluminense vs Internacional Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Remo vs Botafogo Thursday 29 October 2026
- Bahia vs São Paulo Thursday 29 October 2026
- Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro Thursday 29 October 2026
Vitória vs Fluminense: questions and answers
When is Vitória vs Fluminense?
Vitória vs Fluminense is on Friday 6 November 2026, kick-off 23:00 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 34.
Where is Vitória vs Fluminense played?
At Estádio Manoel Barradas, Salvador, Vitória's home ground.
Who will win Vitória vs Fluminense?
It is close: Vitória 31%, draw 28%, Fluminense 41%. Our prediction is Vitória 1-1 Fluminense.
Who is the player to watch in Vitória vs Fluminense?
Luciano Acosta of Fluminense: a dribbling playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 66 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Vitória vs Fluminense?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 48%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.