Borussia Dortmund vs Elversberg Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 9
Bundesliga · Saturday 7 November 2026 · 14:30 UTC · Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund · updated 2026-10-24
Borussia Dortmund welcome Elversberg to Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund in Bundesliga Gameweek 9 action on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC.
Borussia Dortmund have played 6 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 67% of them. At home they average 2.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate. Elversberg have played 6 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Borussia Dortmund are clear favourites at 60%, with the draw at 21% and Elversberg at 18%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Borussia Dortmund 2.15, Elversberg 1.12.
- Over 2.5 goals: 64% · both teams to score: 60%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Borussia Dortmund: form and key numbers
In style Borussia Dortmund keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.74 a match created, 0.92 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.6).
- Shots: 15.2 a match, 5.5 on target.
- Possession: 55.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 67% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.00.
Elversberg: form and key numbers
In style Elversberg are happy without the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.80 a match created, 2.37 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.2).
- Shots: 11.2 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 44.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Borussia Dortmund vs Elversberg: season averages side by side
| Borussia Dortmund | Per match this season | Elversberg |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 0.7 | Goals conceded | 1.8 |
| 1.74 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.80 |
| 0.92 | xG conceded | 2.37 |
| 15.2 | Shots | 11.2 |
| 5.5 | On target | 4.7 |
| 55.0 | Possession % | 44.3 |
| 67% | Clean sheets % | 17% |
| 33% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 4.8 | Corners | 3.7 |
| 2.5 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
| 7.00 | Average rating | 6.78 |
Players to watch
Borussia Dortmund
- Waldemar Anton CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 77 · Reads the game, Box defender (top 2% of his position)
- Felix Nmecha CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 67 · Secure passer, Chance creator (top 10% of his position)
Elversberg
- Nicolas Kristof GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 75 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 1% of his position)
- Maximilian Rohr CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 61 · Blocks shots, Dominant in the air (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ethan Chidiebere Nwaneri
Ethan Chidiebere Nwaneri, 19 · Borussia Dortmund · WF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 62
Ethan Chidiebere Nwaneri, 19, plays as a winger for Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in big chances created and expected assists (est.). Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 62
- RW · Winger Natural, 62
- LM · Wide midfielder Competent, 51
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Big chances created | 0.87 / 90 | 95% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.35 / 90 | 90% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.74 / 90 | 64% |
| Accurate crosses | 0.87 / 90 | 61% |
| Key passes | 1.74 / 90 | 59% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★ Classic winger Winger
Scout's notes: Big-chance creator, Creator.
- What Ethan Chidiebere Nwaneri is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ethan Chidiebere Nwaneri's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Borussia Dortmund vs Elversberg prediction
Borussia Dortmund should have more of the ball, with Elversberg likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 2.15 for Borussia Dortmund and 1.12 for Elversberg - with over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams scoring at 60%. Borussia Dortmund have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Elversberg
Borussia Dortmund vs Elversberg betting tips
- Tip 1: Borussia Dortmund to win 60% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 64% by the model, 3.28 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 60% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 8.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Bundesliga previews
- Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt Saturday 24 October 2026
- SC Freiburg vs FC Bayern München Sunday 25 October 2026
- Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 Friday 30 October 2026
- Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig Saturday 31 October 2026
- Werder Bremen vs TSG Hoffenheim Saturday 31 October 2026
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Paderborn Saturday 31 October 2026
- FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg Saturday 31 October 2026
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart Saturday 31 October 2026
Borussia Dortmund vs Elversberg: questions and answers
When is Borussia Dortmund vs Elversberg?
Borussia Dortmund vs Elversberg is on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 9.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs Elversberg played?
At Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund, Borussia Dortmund's home ground.
Who will win Borussia Dortmund vs Elversberg?
Borussia Dortmund are the favourites: Borussia Dortmund 60%, draw 21%, Elversberg 18%. Our prediction is Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Elversberg.
Who is the player to watch in Borussia Dortmund vs Elversberg?
Ethan Chidiebere Nwaneri of Borussia Dortmund: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 62 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Borussia Dortmund vs Elversberg?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 64%.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.