FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 9
Bundesliga · Saturday 7 November 2026 · 14:30 UTC · Mewa Arena, Mainz · updated 2026-10-24
FSV Mainz 05 welcome FC Bayern München to Mewa Arena in Mainz in Bundesliga Gameweek 9 action on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC.
FSV Mainz 05 have played 6 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate. FC Bayern München have played 6 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 3.7 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, FC Bayern München are narrow favourites at 54%, with the draw at 21% and FSV Mainz 05 at 25%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: FSV Mainz 05 1.54, FC Bayern München 2.31.
- Over 2.5 goals: 74% · both teams to score: 71%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
FSV Mainz 05: form and key numbers
In style FSV Mainz 05 press high, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 2.15 a match created, 1.45 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.1).
- Shots: 17.7 a match, 6.0 on target.
- Possession: 50.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.94.
FC Bayern München: form and key numbers
In style FC Bayern München keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 3.21 a match created, 0.84 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.8).
- Shots: 24.3 a match, 10.3 on target.
- Possession: 69.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 9.7 a match.
- Discipline: 0.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.22.
FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München: season averages side by side
| FSV Mainz 05 | Per match this season | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 2.3 | Goals scored | 3.7 |
| 1.7 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 2.15 | Expected goals (xG) | 3.21 |
| 1.45 | xG conceded | 0.84 |
| 17.7 | Shots | 24.3 |
| 6.0 | On target | 10.3 |
| 50.8 | Possession % | 69.0 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 4.8 | Corners | 9.7 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 0.8 |
| 6.94 | Average rating | 7.22 |
Players to watch
FSV Mainz 05
- Phillip Tietz CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 73 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 2% of his position)
- Sheraldo Becker LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 70 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 4% of his position)
FC Bayern München
- Ismael Saibari AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 75 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 2% of his position)
- Luis Díaz LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 70 · High shot volume, Chance creator (top 8% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Michael Olise
Michael Olise, 24 · FC Bayern München · RWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 90
Michael Olise, 24, plays as a winger for FC Bayern München in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 90
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 87
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 86
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 3.91 / 90 | 99% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.42 / 90 | 98% |
| Shots | 5.03 / 90 | 98% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.86 / 90 | 97% |
| Expected goals | 0.52 / 90 | 95% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Classic winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator, High shot volume.
- What Michael Olise is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Michael Olise's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München prediction
FC Bayern München should have more of the ball, with FSV Mainz 05 likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; FSV Mainz 05 are a threat in the air and from set pieces; FC Bayern München like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.8 goals - 1.54 for FSV Mainz 05 and 2.31 for FC Bayern München - with over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams scoring at 71%. FC Bayern München have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: FSV Mainz 05 1-2 FC Bayern München
FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München betting tips
- Tip 1: FC Bayern München win or draw (double chance) 75% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 74% by the model, 3.84 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 71% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 14.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Bundesliga previews
- Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt Saturday 24 October 2026
- SC Freiburg vs FC Bayern München Sunday 25 October 2026
- Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 Friday 30 October 2026
- Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig Saturday 31 October 2026
- Werder Bremen vs TSG Hoffenheim Saturday 31 October 2026
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Paderborn Saturday 31 October 2026
- FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg Saturday 31 October 2026
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart Saturday 31 October 2026
FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München: questions and answers
When is FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München?
FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München is on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 9.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München played?
At Mewa Arena, Mainz, FSV Mainz 05's home ground.
Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München?
FC Bayern München are the favourites: FSV Mainz 05 25%, draw 21%, FC Bayern München 54%. Our prediction is FSV Mainz 05 1-2 FC Bayern München.
Who is the player to watch in FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München?
Michael Olise of FC Bayern München: a classic winger with a Moneyball Score of 90 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 74%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.