RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 9
Bundesliga · Saturday 7 November 2026 · 14:30 UTC · Red Bull Arena, Leipzig · updated 2026-10-24
RB Leipzig welcome FC Augsburg to Red Bull Arena in Leipzig in Bundesliga Gameweek 9 action on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC.
RB Leipzig have played 6 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.7 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 4.7 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. FC Augsburg have played 6 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.7 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 3.0 goals scored and 2.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, RB Leipzig are narrow favourites at 60%, with the draw at 17% and FC Augsburg at 23%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: RB Leipzig 2.98, FC Augsburg 1.91.
- Over 2.5 goals: 87% · both teams to score: 81%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (6%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
RB Leipzig: form and key numbers
In style RB Leipzig keep the ball, cross a lot, take players on.
- Expected goals: 2.19 a match created, 1.66 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.8).
- Shots: 17.8 a match, 6.5 on target.
- Possession: 52.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.00.
FC Augsburg: form and key numbers
In style FC Augsburg are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.12 a match created, 3.15 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.3).
- Shots: 16.2 a match, 7.0 on target.
- Possession: 41.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 83% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg: season averages side by side
| RB Leipzig | Per match this season | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 2.7 | Goals scored | 2.7 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 2.0 |
| 2.19 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.12 |
| 1.66 | xG conceded | 3.15 |
| 17.8 | Shots | 16.2 |
| 6.5 | On target | 7.0 |
| 52.7 | Possession % | 41.5 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 17% |
| 33% | Both teams scored % | 83% |
| 5.5 | Corners | 6.0 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 7.00 | Average rating | 6.95 |
Players to watch
RB Leipzig
- Tidiam Gomis LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 75 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 4% of his position)
- Antonio Nusa LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 71 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 2% of his position)
FC Augsburg
- Finn Dahmen GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 74 · Shot-stopper, Box defender (top 1% of his position)
- Marius Wolf RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 68 · Creator, Chance creator (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Michael Gregoritsch
Michael Gregoritsch, 32 · FC Augsburg · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 79
Michael Gregoritsch, 32, plays as a centre-forward for FC Augsburg in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in shots on target and shot quality (xG per shot). Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 79
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots on target | 83% | 100% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.25 xG/shot | 92% |
| Expected goals | 0.79 / 90 | 87% |
| Goals | 1.04 / 90 | 87% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.64 / 90 | 85% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Accurate shooter, Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Michael Gregoritsch is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Michael Gregoritsch's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg prediction
RB Leipzig should have more of the ball, with FC Augsburg likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; RB Leipzig work the ball wide and cross; FC Augsburg are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 4.9 goals - 2.98 for RB Leipzig and 1.91 for FC Augsburg - with over 2.5 goals at 87% and both teams scoring at 81%. RB Leipzig have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: RB Leipzig 2-1 FC Augsburg
RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg betting tips
- Tip 1: RB Leipzig to win 60% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 87% by the model, 4.89 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 81% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Bundesliga previews
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- Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig Saturday 31 October 2026
- Werder Bremen vs TSG Hoffenheim Saturday 31 October 2026
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Paderborn Saturday 31 October 2026
- FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg Saturday 31 October 2026
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RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg: questions and answers
When is RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg is on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 9.
Where is RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg played?
At Red Bull Arena, Leipzig, RB Leipzig's home ground.
Who will win RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
RB Leipzig are the favourites: RB Leipzig 60%, draw 17%, FC Augsburg 23%. Our prediction is RB Leipzig 2-1 FC Augsburg.
Who is the player to watch in RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
Michael Gregoritsch of FC Augsburg: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 79 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 87%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.